It’s easy to scoff at business predictions for the coming year. But the best social media prognosticators (like Shiv Signh in his SmartBrief on Social Media interview) have a leg up on their counterparts in other industries, since they can look to hardware to light the way. Augmented reality. Geotagging. Apps for everything. These are technologies that are just now starting to hit the mainstream, so it only makes sense that 2010 will see companies developing software to take advantage of these growing opportunities. Saying that our software will try catch up to our hardware in 2010 seems like a safe bet to me.
But of course it doesn’t end there. The really dangerous question is, “What technologies will we all be buzzing about this time next year?” I won’t pretend that I know the answer. But I’m willing to bet that whatever Pranav Mistry is working on a year from now will have huge implications for social media for years to come. Watch this video of him demonstrating SixthSense Technology. Now envision what that does to the social space. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if a year from now we’ll all be trying to figure out how to take advantage of a world where our social connections and our physical space are finally merged.
What are your predictions for the coming year? What new ideas are we going to be talking about in 2010?
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Contrary to popular belief, I can see the usage of social media start to slow down. Momentum only moves in two directions, up and down. There is going to be a time where this momentum is going to slow down, stop and go the other way.
As people start realizing that there is no need to share everything about yourself, or know everything about “friends” thay are going to pull away from this mass communication.
Also, something that has fueled the use of social media is the job losses due to the economy. With more time at home, people have the time to spend on social media. As people start going back to work when the economy rebounds, the time that they once dedicated to “updating their status” will slow down.
I am not saying it will be next year, or social media will stop 100%but in my opinion it will slow down. As much as people want to feel connected with everything and everyone, it is going to become a burden and people will start to pull back a little more.
[...] First Tweet: 1 minute ago b2btwiter Mark Williams 2010 predictions: Follow the hardware http://smartblogs.com/socialmedia/2009/12/08/2010-predictions-follow-the-hardware/ retweet [...]
[...] First Tweet: 1 minute ago b2btwiter Mark Williams 2010 predictions: Follow the hardware http://smartblogs.com/socialmedia/2009/12/08/2010-predictions-follow-the-hardware/ retweet [...]
I tend to agree with Robert that people will simply tire of the effort required on their part to stay socially ‘current.’ Also, business users of social media are well advised to take stock of the (dis)honesty of social media communications. As more people grow suspect of the unscreened identities and unedited information that now often passes for gospel, suspicion and fatigue are going to increasingly cloud branding efforts dressed up as social media interaction. In fact, the only people likely to keep on keeping on are the complainers and haters…thanks for the brand bashing billboard.
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I don’t think the use of social media will slow down at all, rather I think it will start to change direction. A change in velocity (direction+speed) rather than momentum. I completely agree with Robert that people will tire of the constant “On” nature of social media as it is frequently used now and trying to keep up with every tweet, facebook update… will simply become tiresome as the novelty wears off.
However, people will begin to use social media channels in unique ways, filtering more data and focusing down on the things that are of regular interest to them.
Applications like BuddyPress (buddypress.org) which are still maturing but are on the verge of taking a huge leap forward in terms of customization will enable users to create more decentralized “niche” social networks. We might still use OpenID or Facebook connect to login and maintain a common profile but we’ll look more to what is genuinely useful/interesting to us on a day to day basis rather than every update from an hold high school friend who is about to walk their dog.
Look for BuddyPress driven sites to start taking off in 2010 and the decentralization of social networks to begin.
I don’t think social media will slow down either. We’re all plugged in and those that want to slow down their usage of social media…already have. But here’s the thing: social media components have been added to almost everything. If estimates are correct, more than 50% of people will access the internet on their phones. Phones have apps, and apps connect you to social media sites. Phones are the one thing you have with you 24/7, in order to get away from social media you’ll literally have to get rid of your phone….which won’t happen. Direction will change, but speed will continue.
You said “What technologies will we all be buzzing about this time next year?”
IMHO, it’s a common misconception that this painfully slow transition — away from the mass-media era — is all about technology. It isn’t. It’s about interaction and conversation — conducted in a human voice.
More than a decade after the “Cluetrain Manifesto” book was written, there are people who are still in denial, or simply just don’t get it. The legacy Advertising and PR agency mindset apparently can’t adapt to a new way of thinking about the same old problem.
I’m ready for a “Marketing Ice Age” in 2010 — let the dinosaurs become fossil fuel.
I’m with you, Scott and Kaila.
Last week, one of my most trusted thought leader friends @GenslerLfstyle called to my attention Mashable CEO Pete Cashmore’s use of the term “attention economy” in his excellent Web trends prediction piece http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/12/03/cashmore.web.trends.2010/.
That our time and attention is a highly valuable commodity is a critical concept. In 2010 we’re going to find more expeditious ways to use social networking tools to get at the news and information that’s most essential and relevant to each of us. Faster and smarter.
I think marketing has to fit the shape of our lives to be effective — because the reverse is certainly never going to be true.
When consumers started to shop online, marketers followed. When we started blogging, started reviewing products, started sharing information and opinions in a social space, marketing followed us there too. Now the Web is mobile. Guess what that means?
Not all marketing changes are driven by technology– you’re right about that David. But when technology changes peoples lives, the message has to keep up with the medium.
Been working on our predictions over at http://www.concepthubinc.com However, we are calling it the near future of the web as opposed to 2010 predictions. I am not sure the speed of adoption and innovation can be contained to a year. So far we have explored the evolution of Niche Networks, Gaming, Social Commerce, Personalization and Enterprise 2.0. Our next few posts of the year we touch on the Free economy, Augmented Reality, and the Semantic Web.
As Scott, Kaila, Merritt, Jesse and others here have observed… Social media will continue to grow and you will see it employed in the B2B space in new and interesting ways. ProSocial Networks / a.k.a. verticle market social networks will become extremely interesting in the B2B space. Marketers / Vendors are learning very fast that they need to be a part of the communities convesations in new and engaging ways. Sponsorship of Topic Discussions, Blogs, and new creative units that invite investigation and dialogue are already here. The trend will hit many different business setors and will continue to grow at a rapid pace from what I can see from my experience in the B2B Social Media sector (feel free to see: http://www.ciozone.com and http://www.cfozone.com for examples).
By the end of 2010, most of us will have abandoned social media because of spam, viruses and scams. Recently, the bad guys have discovered how to send virus-laden messages that appear to be from your most trusted contacts on Twitter. Facebook scams pepper the environment – again, ostensibly from your own followers. And, there are even savvy spammers on LinkedIn – who connect to no one, but join your LI groups in order to send out their “click-me” messages.
We’ll have all discovered that the time it takes to separate the small amount of wheat from the huge amount of social media chaff just isn’t worth it. Most importantly, we’ll begin to understand that the information offered on these sites is almost always self-serving and repetitive. And, we’ll finally realize that the only people benefiting from social media are those selling us on the idea of wasting our own time on it.
I think that that pressures that Robert and Steve (both on 8th Dec) are valid and forces that will shape social media next year. However this will not result in a slow down of social media adoption as they believe.
Instead new tools and technologies will be produced that will understand who we are and what we do (for example this will include geotagging technology), which will inform the “super network” (aggregations of smaller networks like Facebook and MySpace etc that we see today) and enable automatic maintainence of our social sphere. As such there will be less effort required ‘keeping socially current’.
Another, partially related prediction I have for 2010 is the focus on network segmentation. This is currently in its infancy and requires greater controls based on the needs of the individual user, what they use the network for etc. In 2010 it will not be acceptable to use Linkedin due to their superiour control over business networks and facebook for personal networks. In order to get to the top of the tree networks will fragment its services and provide these controls to suit a wide range of uses.
My predictions are that Facebook will continue to grow and fanpages will become an integral part of business marketing. Your social power will depend on your strategic connections.
[...] cada uno enfatiza un aspecto y, en general, difieren en los detalles. Algunos, incluso se atreven a ir más allá, hablando de realidad aumentada o geotagging. Por supuesto están los clásicos, como Tim Bajarin [...]
As Scott, Kaila, Merritt, Jesse and others here have observed… Social media will continue to grow and you will see it employed in the B2B space in new and interesting ways. ProSocial Networks / a.k.a. verticle market social networks will become extremely interesting in the B2B space. Marketers / Vendors are learning very fast that they need to be a part of the communities convesations in new and engaging ways. Sponsorship of Topic Discussions, Blogs, and new creative units that invite investigation and dialogue are already here. The trend will hit many different business setors and will continue to grow at a rapid pace from what I can see from my experience in the B2B Social Media sector (feel free to see: http://www.ciozone.com and http://www.cfozone.com for examples).