Shelly Alcorn, CAE, is a thought-leader, speaker and association management consultant.  Reach her on twitter @shellyalcorn, on LinkedIn or at the Association Subculture blog. This is the first in a five-part series for SmartBrief Insights.  In his most recent work, “How the Mighty Fall,” Jim Collins posits five signs of an organization at risk of or beginning the descent into chaos, decline and — at the very worst –  destruction.  This five-part series will take a look at each of the main stages identified by Jim Collins and relate them to issues you may be facing as association professionals particularly in this economic climate. Part 1; Part 2.

According to Jim Collins, the third stage for an organization on the brink is the denial of risk and peril.  Stage 1 – hubris born of success and Stage 2 – the undisciplined pursuit of more set the conditions for Stage 3.  Large successes are the backdrop against which danger and potential failure unfold which is why corporate boards are so reluctant, even when faced with evidence to the contrary, to admit their plans have gone awry.  Although Stage 1 and 2 behaviors can build over time, Stage 3 has a limited shelf-life and if not dealt with the chaos and collapse of Stages 4 and 5 can move with frightening speed.

Framing the Wrong Issues – At the time of the space shuttle Challenger disaster it was rumored NASA personnel had launched the Challenger in the face of unassailable data that said the shuttle should not have been.  In fact, the lead-up to the launch was highly contentious with a deluge of conflicting data and opinion.  In the end, the question changed from “Can you prove it’s SAFE to launch?” to “Can you prove it’s UNSAFE to launch?”  Those are two very different questions.

Selective Gathering and Interpretation of Data – A corollary to framing the wrong issues is the tendency for association leaders in crisis and already suffering from hubris and expansion hangovers to be selective about the data they gather and how they interpret the conclusions therein.  Leaders may spend time looking for data to support what they already think they know – not data that will call those conclusions into question.

Thinking Positively – Some argue our culture has become obsessed with thinking positively to our detriment.  At times this cultural narrative infects our business environment to the point where we believe programs will work, in the face of evidence to the contrary, if we just have enough faith.  Positive cultures on the edge are the ones who chide, ostracize or actively punish those who bring a negative perspective to the table.

Intellectually Dishonest Debate – An intellectually rigorous debate produces clear choices that can be voted upon in democratic fashion and supported by both winners and losers alike.  However, if evidence is denied or mischaracterized and if debate is reduced to talking points, there is little to no reason to hope the opposition can move forward in support of actions they have no confidence in.

Playing the Blame Game – Associations in Stage 3 spend much of their time playing the blame game.  One way to deny risk and peril, while still appearing to be responsible actors, is to refuse to admit having played any part in it.  Stern talk about “investigations” and “fact finding commissions” often boils down to – “We blew it, we just don’t want to admit it.“

Denying risk and peril is the fastest way to experience both.  Staying clear about your mission and vision and having the strength to make necessary adjustments before it is too late can often bring an association back from the edge.  It takes courage and an unwavering sense of discipline to keep moving the pieces on the chess board.  The game is not lost in Stage 3 but the stakes are high.  You still have the opportunity, although it is fading fast, to set the stage for recovery or experience further decline.

Join us next time as we evaluate the fourth stage in decline – grasping for salvation.  For a more in-depth exploration of the above topic, please visit the full post on the Association Subculture blog.

Related Posts:

• The Second Stage of Decline – Undisciplined Pursuit of More
• The Fifth Stage of Decline – Capitulation to Irrelevance or Death
• Grasping for Salvation
• Association leadership: Transforming governance to stewardship
• Strategic Planning in a Changing Environment