A collection of stories from SmartBrief publications and around the web…

Stats guru Nate Silver takes to Grantland (wait … a sports site?) to offer 6 observations about the government shutdown. “The folks you see on TV are much too sure of themselves. They’ve been making too much of thin slices of polling and thinner historical precedents that might not apply this time around.”

With the Federal Reserve openly relying on economic data to determine the course of its quantitative easing program, CME Group chief economist Blu Putnam points out the impact the government shutdown will have on the very data upon which the Fed relies. “The data release delays and then the subsequent confusion over interpreting possibly flawed data means the data-dependent FOMC may need to wait for the employment report scheduled for the first Friday of January 2014 before they get a dependable read on how the US labor markets coped with the uncertainties of the government shutdown, budget process, and debt ceiling debate.”

Middle-market executives are upbeat … sort of. (read more…)

A collection of stories from SmartBrief publications and around the web…

The Economist goes covert (sort of) to get a look at what Goldman Sachs is doing to reform from within.

The Milken Institute published a white paper analyzing how countries around the world are dealing with systemically important financial institutions in the aftermath of the financial crisis. “Strikingly, countries are more similar than different in the measures they have adopted for regulating and supervising such banks.” Senior Fellow and co-author James Barth adds, “The greatest progress to date in establishing workable regulatory financial standards by the G-20 has been in the area of banking, through the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, including the Basel III bank capital standards.”

Speaking of global regulatory reform, a new Risk.net poll reveals 74% of respondents are uncertain about how the CTFC’s substituted compliance process will work. With less than three months until the exemptive order expires and the CFTC not answering most phones calls, it is a good bet the CFTC will extend the exemptive order after the government shutdown ends. (read more…)

The demographics of the U.S. population are changing dramatically. We are becoming a much more diverse society due to the growth of minority populations and immigration. Illegal immigration is a hot topic, generating strong feelings on both sides of the issue. The Office of Immigration estimates that 11 million illegal immigrants are living in the U.S. today; 3 million arrived in the past 10 years. Congress and President Barack Obama plan to introduce legislation to change the status of immigrants who are currently in the U.S. illegally. It is clear that immigration — regardless of status — is changing the demographic makeup of the U.S. population.

Where do the minority populations live? Do their locations vary by the minority racial or ethnic type?

According to Esri, a geographic information systems company, in 2012, 115.8 million people in the U.S. identify themselves as a minority race or ethnicity. This includes 52.8 million Hispanics, 39.5 million blacks, and 15.2 million Asians as well as other races which includes American Indian and Pacific Islanders. (read more…)

The majority of investment professionals think the presidential election will affect both the U.S. and global economic recovery, the CFA Institute reported in a recent survey. According to the results, 80% of the more than 2,600 members who responded think the outcome of the election will affect the U.S. recovery, while 63% of respondents said they think the election will affect the global economic recovery.

Half of all respondents think the impact on the U.S. economic recovery will depend on who wins the election. Meanwhile, 29% think there will be an impact regardless of who wins.

A full 20% of all respondents think the result of the election will not have any impact on the recovery of the U.S. economy.

The survey also provided some insight into the thinking of members of the C-suite, with 72% of C-level executives thinking the election will affect the global economic recovery, compared to 62% of respondents who hold other titles. (read more…)

This post was written by Cindy Kraft, the CFO Coach, who is a career and personal-brand strategist for CFOs and corporate finance executives.

SmartPulse — our weekly nonscientific reader poll in SmartBrief for CFOs — tracks feedback from leading CFOs and senior finance executives. We run the poll question each Wednesday in our e-newsletter.

Last week, we asked: Will the debt ceiling be raised?

Yes — with tax increases and spending cuts

Yes — with spending cuts, but no tax increase

No — the parties are too far apart

Raising the roof: More than 90% of you say the debt ceiling will be raised, you just differ on whether or not tax hikes will accompany the increase. Thirty percent expect there will be no tax hikes; while the rest see tax increases heading our way. Less than 10% say no compromise is possible given how far apart the parties are today. (read more…)